2012-11-01
2012-11-30
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of these states, in particular in iowa and nevada, democrats have it locked up with early vote. in ohio they have a good position with early vote, but it depends on who turns out. republicans are coming out in big numbers in the rural areas, and the question i think for democrats is, how do we do in those urban areas, it particular the top ten counties? the thing i would like to stress is, you know, when you have an election that is this close and it's pretty obvious to say that the obvious, but it is going to be turnout, and democrats have got to be really focused and that is individual democrats coming out to vote. do not believe that this thing is over by any stretch of the imagination. this is going to be a very tight election. >> who doesn't believe that at this point, chris? >> you know, i sometimes hear when i see these pundits talk about their forecasts about what the election is going to be, i get it. if you look at the real clear politics averages, you can make that prediction. i'll make that prediction and think president obama will win. when you have so many polls clustered around the

votes for sure and he'll probably get in nevada which is six votes, that brings him to 243 votes. if he picked up ohio, then he would have, i think, 261 votes. he would need only nine more votes to climb the presidency. ohio is always important, especially to republicans, i'd say, this year more important than ever. >> we've been talking to voters in all states as they've left the polls today. anthony mason is in the exiting poll information. what did the voters in ohio say? >> the battleground states. the polls have closed, all three of them still right here in the middle in the toss-up column. we want to turn our eyes to ohio and the 18 electoral votes as we've been talking about. look in ohio, it makes up a quarter of the electorate there. john mccain and barack obama just about split this vote. romney has slightly a better advantage, but again, very close. we asked the white working class voters who's more in touch with people like you? again, tight. but asked as who would do a better job with the economy? romney has a big advantage. 53% to 44%. these are white working class voters

the president will carry nevada. some republicans push back but let's give nevada to the president. hypothetical here, folks. that would put the president at 243 to 206. you need 270 to win. let's see if romney can find the magic to get to 270. the state of iowa, the president will end there. that's his final rally. the president with a lead there. it's small. the romney campaign says it's still in play but the president has consistently led by a small margin. you will see more and more of that across the midwest. you mentioned governor romney going to cleveland tomorrow. let's look at the latest polling in ohio. no republican ever won the white house without it. mathematically can he get there without it, yes. is it probable, no. here's the latest poll of polls. cnn putting together the average of seven public polls, 50-47. so a very competitive race but again, the president has consistently been ahead by a couple in ohio. governor romney needs to win on the ground and win big on the ground tomorrow to carry that state. in a close election like this, sometimes the little guys matter. new hampsh

george allen by just two windows. with races all tied up in places like nevada, arizona and montana, north dakota, wisconsin and connecticut, it could be a nail-biter on tuesday night. >>> and it will be a nail-biter waiting for the presidential election results. we're two days out and experts are predicting a very long election night. the president's senior advisory says mr. obama and mr. romney are in neck, so he expects tallying of voting results to go well into the morning. a poll has the president just one point ahead of romney, 48% to 47%. and for a look at what states could make all the difference in the outcome... >> reporter: california almost certain to vote for president obama. voters in the red states almost certain to go for governor romney. arizona and north carolina leaning romney. new mexico, minnesota and pennsylvania are leaning obama. so what do you have left? true toss-up states, we will color them yellow. nevada, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, new hampshire, and florida. and check out how close the latest polling numbers are in the yellow swing late.

hampshire, virgin, florida, ohio, wisconsin, colorado, nevada, and if you put that through the grinder, you come out with one state, ohio. is that true? but you have nevada which is leaning towards obama and wisconsin is still leaning towards obama. ohio, is my view, is in dispense able. >> where did you read that nevada is leaning towards obama. >> i haven't seen a poll are romney leading first. it's one-third hispanic, and this heavily unionized. >> i have people there and they don't think that at all. >> that's the wrong neighborhood. >> here's the point i want to make. the polls today are regarded at microscopically perfect, you and i know, say ten years ago when you were still doing this show because of your tenacity, and because of my leniency. >> 0 years ago. >> 20 years ago, 30, polls were regarded as a rock makes, these polls today have -- as approximation, these polls today are -- >> there is money to be made. >> one or two -- [ talking over one another ] >> i hate to see this come to an end. >> polls are not that precise. >> if they weren't that precise, why do politicians spend

this early vote has turned out. look at this. colorado, 77% has already voted. nevada. 72%. north carolina, 63% has already voted. in florida 53%. iowa 44%. and ohio 31%. john dickerson and i were talking about this earlier today. we could have most of the results already by the people that have come out early and that's why the campaigns spent so much time on getting out the vote early, this ground game on these early votes. >> pelley: we'll come back to you early and often. john dickerson is our cbs news political director. john is going to be showing us the various ways that the candidates can get to the 270 electoral votes necessary to twin presidency. john? >> well, first, scott, let's follow up on what bob was saying. we're going to dispatch with 41 of the states, the majority of the country cbs estimates based on the polling that those states are either going to go to barack obama or to mitt romney. that gives barack obama a start where he's likely to get 237 electoral votes, mitt romney is likely to get 191 electoral votes. so here we are at the beginning of the evening, nothing ha

in the battleground blitz in wisconsin, nevada, and colorado. when he makes his final campaign stop in des moines, iowa, at a rally with the first lady, that's the only stop that she joins him on. the president will have visited eight of the nine battleground states. the one that he's not going to is north carolina. the 2012 presidential election could hinge on this, will the firewall of iowa, ohio, and wisconsin hold up? and you only have to look at the president's travel over the last five days of the campaign to find out that's where the campai campaign believes the race will be decided. one of them has to be the state of ohio. the president has events in ohio four out of five days on the trail. he stopped in iowa, wisconsin, and colorado two times, each will be in florida and virginia, new hampshire, nevada just once before this campaign is over. today the president will begin laying out what aides say is his closing argument, making a stronger case for government. he will point to the way forward to real change. it will say this apparently in his stump speech that will create a stronger futu

4 points in washington and pennsylvania. leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt romney with needs to win 54 to 60% of the remaining votes in the states in order to drop into the victory. that's a huge lift. i think when you couple the fact that democratic base is much more fired up with the fact that obama for america has been organizing for the last four years. they keep talking about pennsylvania, you can't drop into pennsylvania the weekend before an election, and expect to tip the vote just by buying ads when you have the other team with a fantastic ground operation. >> drive by campaigning won't do it. when you look at pennsy

that had large hispanic populations. like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the break, if you could run the campaign in the last three days, what would you do if you have the reins of the campaign. if you were in charge of the romney campaign, anna, what would you do at this point? >> i think exactly what they are doing. they're having big rallies. showing a great deal of republican unity. they're showing a great deal of momentum. they've got over a hundred of the top republican surrogates out there fanning around the country, going to the swing states. so you've got to get your base out at this point. pretty mu there are very few undecided that are left. i

million. missouri, a candidate's spending $22 million, $8 million in outside money. nevada, $18 million. independent line, good morning. who is going to win? caller: i think that mr. obama is going to win, but i had three points to make and i would like you to pick one. beer summit, take one for the team, or buyer's remorse. can you pick one? host: i will let you pick. my job is to get to the phone calls. caller: let me have all three, then. host: go ahead. caller: mitt romney will never have a beer summit, he will never mediate. nothing will ever happen like that, first of all. he does not drink. take one for the team? i do not think he would take one for the team. i think he would make america team america. he would make team america take one for him. his religiosity, he may want to force that on america when we are not ready. also, the buyer's remorse. i wrote down the we would be darned if we do and donned if we do not. we will wind up with more gridlock and the republicans will wind up with mr. obama anyway. host: ok. "washington post," the annual crystal ball addition. we are taki

contest. barack obama was leading before the election and then prevailed 52-46%. nevada also expected to be in the president's column, and indeed it turned out to be. let's go to new hampshire. this is a bit of a home state for mitt romney because he has a vacation home there. he spent a lot of time vacationing during the primaries. he won the primary, but not the general election in new hampshire. to north carolina a close race and we called it for mitt romney, a three-point win. the state of ohio, this was really the make or break for the mitt romney campaign. in the end he lost it by two percentage points. a lot of it had to do with his position on the auto bailout. virginia an important state for mitt romney to win. he had to run the table of florida, north carolina, virginia and ohio and he lost virginia. let's move to wisconsin. his running mate paul ryan born and raised in wisconsin. it didn't help him there. barack obama wins with wise -- wins wisconsin. the state of michigan mitt romney was born in michigan and raised there. his father was the governor for two terms. barack o

in wisconsin and colorado and nevada. he's certainly going to recognize the victims of this storm at the top of his remarks and note that this was a time for democrats and republicans to come together and take care of those victims of the storm. thing the state of ohio, we've seen a little bit different tone from mitt romney this week. he's gotten himself into a battle with gm and chrysler. he said that chrysler is going to shut down jeep production in the state of ohio and scared a bunch of workers in the region. the auto companies have made clear that's absolutely not true. i think we've seen a little bit of desperation in his closing message. >> and we have seen a slight swing for the president in our new swing state polls. i'm sure you saw what karl rove wrote today. in the last days of the presidential race, he says they favor mitt romney. the democrats are making a mistake because they're counting on inconsistent voters who may well not turn out. could turn out be the difference in this election? does karl rove have a point? >> well, i think turnout will make the difference in this ele

, this is without nevada, this puts him at 271, this what is they believe is their fastest, most narrowest path. now, why is romney doing what he's doing with florida today? virginia. don't forget north carolina is one that they're counting on. new hampshire and then ohio. because ohio, look at that, it's right on the number. if all the states he visits today he carries, that's what he's doing. both of them are visiting, andrea, their narrowest paths to 270. i took you to the 271 path for the president, and then you saw the 270 path if you will for romney. now everything in between, what's a great night for the president, take you to that quickly. that would mean, winning ohio, but the one state i think they feel the least bit about is in north carolina. leave florida in romney's column. i think ultimately this is what we're looking at. something right in the 300 range is most realistic good night for the president. you go to mitt romney and what they think their most realistic be good night and why you see he has a little higher ceiling, bring these states back, virginia, iowa, which by the way i t

of the hour we'll take you to nevada and wisconsin. first, back to sole dad. >>> at the end of the day, it's all going to be about the math. in order to win, you have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. let's get to christine romans who is crunching the numbers. >> the rose to 270. what if it were a draw at 269? it's possible. there are four 269 scenarios. statistically, there are 120 different scenarios. four with the swing states. this is hypothetical, remember. the map is assuming that states that are actually leaning go in the direction that they're leaning right now. wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire, new hampshire with the four electoral votes, if they go for obama and romney wins nevada, colorado, iowa, virginia, and the 29 over there in florida, then you're at a tie. worst nightmare for both parties. 269 each. now a note for iowa here, this is assuming it goes red, it goes for romney with the six electoral votes. recent polls there showing a slight lead, actually, for obama. if wisconsin and ohio vote democrat, you know, technically you could think -- you could conclud

: what about early voting in nevada? >> both colorado and nevada are early voting states. 80% of registered voters are vote. 56%, nevada. the gop is battling harry reid's political machine. a growing population has a voting edge of -- voting edge of 90,000. despite obama's 2-point statewide lead they can make it up in reno and democratic turnout, early voting is down 5 points over 2008. martha: thanks, william. bill: we heard for several years that the economy is issue number one for you at home. if that's the case, how does this race break today? fair and balanced debate on that in a moment. martha: a handful of swing states that will likely determine the outcome of this election. which states fall into that category and why? bill: the race seems to be tightening by the day. why does one political analyst predict a landslide. >> you watched what happened in this country the last four years with an interview. you hope that president obama would live up with his promise to bring people together, to solve the big problems. he hasn't. i will. [cheers and applause] but don't just

, turnout is crucial. >> turnout has been crucial for three weeks. in other words, in colorado, nevada, north carolina, it may have been crucial before today, but on election day, as nancy mentioned in her piece, republicans have to turn their base out. >> stay with us, we'll be speaking with both campaigns this morning. we begin with david axelrod. david, good morning. >> good morning, charlie. happy election day. >> well, thank you. happy election day to you and everybody else in the great state of illinois. so tell me what it is that's most crucial today for you to win. >> well, you've been using the word, which is turnout. we've been expecting a close election for a year and a half. we've built a tremendous organization. we've got 200,000 or more election shifts volunteers set up. we've got 5,000 stations in neighborhoods across the battleground states. and now it's time to turn out that vote. and that's what this election is going to be about. we are happy about those early vote numbers. those early vote numbers are very significant. we go in with a great advantage. >> one thing t

. let's take a look. if president obama wins nevada, iowa and pennsylvania, nevada, iowa, and pennsylvania, and let's say mitt romney wins colorado, new hampshire, and florida. new hampshire, colorado, that leaves three toss-ups. wisconsin, ohio, and the old dominion. so if the candidates split, ohio and wisconsin, neither one of them gets to the 270 electoral votes needed to win without virginia. and the final nbc news wall street journal poll before this election, it shows virginia in a statistic call tie. back to you. >> the following two breaking stories tonight. a commuter train hit and killed a person. no word on what led to the identity of the victim. shuttles have been taking some passengers to their death nations. delays are not expected to have an impact on the commute in the morning. >>> a 75-year-old man was critically injured in an apartment fire. and firefighters found him in the basement of the apartments on generals highway in crownsville. the cause of this fire is still under investigation. >> tonight, a father is facing charges after his 4-year-old child

states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states for the presidential race where everybody pretty much knows exactly how it's going to go and just the states where there is some question as to what's going to happen, here is a clip and save thing for you about these states. the battlegrounds. all right? states that you know are going to be important and everybody th

marquez is in las vegas, nevada. ed lavandera is in denver, colorado, for us this morning. john zarrella comes to us live from plantation, florida. we want to begin with complete comprehensive coverage with john berman checking in to see how our correspondents are faring. >> thanks, soledad. the candidates are all over the place today. president obama and mitt romney hold atriallies in seven states today. a final frenetic day of campaigning across the battleground. for the president, he begins in wisconsin, a state that has voted true blue since 1984 but it is almost always close. and with paul ryan a native wisconsin son on the republican ticket, the obama team is taking no chances. they've called in the cavalry to help, including the boss, bruce springsteen to seal the deal. dan lothian is live in madison, wisconsin. good morning, dan. >> good morning, and you're right, bruce springsteen will be warming up the crowd here with a 30-minute concert before the president comes out. the campaign has been using these big names not only to draw in big audiences, but also to energize them. i ca

: in the senate races, we are in michigan, wisconsin, nevada, the governor's race in new hampshire. we do 75 congressional races. we started off with 53 incumbents going into this election. we do some polling for the romney campaign. host: what is happening for the wisconsin senate race? guest: i did some polling for scott walker. we have it right in terms of polling as opposed to what you are seeing in the public polling. we have a net edge presidentially and in the senate race going for tom thompson in that senate race. what we are seeing there we are seeing in all of the campaigns. we have closed the gaps that democrats have in those states. guest: we see a much more partisan atmosphere than in 2008. the democrat in wisconsin has a slight lead. that will be a close race on election day. wisconsin is a little bit closer than it has been before. in the end, obama wins that state by two or three points. host: i want to put on the screen what is happening in colorado, alabama, north carolina. the number of votes cast as of yesterday. in colorado, 1.5 million votes cast. 35% for democrats, 37%

nevada. this has turned into a very big night for president obama. you had the sense from campaign aide early on as the polls started closing that they new things were trend in their direction and they were feeling confident. the president wrote two different speeches for tonight. a victory speech. and a concession speech. he was prepared for any scenario. tonight here in this room, before, newly 20,000, very excited supporters, he gets to deliver that victory speech. >> we are an american family and we rise or fall together as one nation and as one people. [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: reporting from chicago, obama campaign headquarters, karen travers for abc news. >> i'm brandi hitt in boston where the room fell silent the minute it was announced mitt romney lost the key battleground state of ohio and then the election. romney supporters were convince heed would win some of the key battleground states. he just fell short in states like pennsylvania, ohio and also virginia. here is what mitt romney told his supporters after he called president obama to congratulate him. >> this

to hold. >> ohio? >> you skipped on me. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's s

nevada, those four states, romney could win with pennsylvania and then the other swing states. >> virginia -- >> and florida. it's not his best -- it's not where he would want to be at this point in the campaign. but looking at where the polls have been in ohio all year, i think they think it's worth a shot. >> you think it makes a difference on the last day, the day people are voting for a candidate to show up in pennsylvania and ohio? >> here's the thing about that. in those other states, early voting is well under way and most of each sides' votes have already been banked. pennsylvania doesn't have a big early voting program. so everyone that's going to vote in pennsylvania is going to vote on tuesday. so he might think, maybe this is my chance, i have a captive audience there because obama hasn't been there much. and i've got more votes that are available to me in pennsylvania. >> we're all spending so much time thinking about ohio. but is there another state you're looking at closely right now? >> the thing i'm looking at is some of these states where hispanics are a risi

look at the numbers in florida, 16% of the voting public will be latino. nevada at 15.1%. colorado 15.7%. swing states where you're winning by a margin of 3-1 this can really shift those tightly tightly-fought states. answer for me, why was mitt romney so tone deaf on the issue of immigration? >> well, you know, it's not just mitt romney. it's the republican party really. when they had the tea party waved and most of the moderate republicans were swept out of office because they lost primary elections to these very extreme tea party candidate tea party candidates are completely wrong on the issue of immigration and they're amped up with their rhetoric. i think the republican party has a lot of soul searching to do. here in the state of california republican registration has dipped below 30% for the first tame. they're quickly becoming a permanent minority party. they've completely missed the boat on immigration. we're a country of immigrants. the majority of people regardless of their political affiliation think that immigration is good for this country, and it revitalizes this countr

. >> dana: nevada, your favorite state. >> greg: i love nevada. i spent time in carson city against my will. >> bob: chicken ranch. >> greg: no, bob. i have nothing on nevada. tom arnold is not voting for his ex-wife rosanne as nominee for peace and freedom party. this is your ex-wife. support her. >> dana: peace and freedom party? >> greg: the i want more marijuana party. >> bob: what twitter are you wearing snowear today? >> greg: this is in the spirit of money. i want people start making money and get rich again. that's why i'm wearing this. >> bob: one thing, colorado, other states voting on the legalization of marijuana today. draw the youth vote. >> greg: did they get off the couch? >> dana: can you offer the munchies at the polling booth? >> eric: >> bob: sure! >> eric: throw this out. we will know, we may know the fate of the next president. ohio, pennsylvania, virginia, florida. when you know those, it is pretty, pretty locked in when we know those four. >> dana: here we go. when we come back, we'll check in with campaign carl cameron spending the day at romney headquarters in bost

. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force these, hiohio, virginia

with the democratic leader, harry reid of nevada, as well as former majority leader and my good friend george mitchell of maine on this very question. i came away from these conversations reassured that my independence would be respected and that no party line commitment would be -- >> and there you have it, angus king giving his justification for joining the democratic caucus, so we will talk to democratic senator that was partially responsible for helping to get angus king ele elected. the race is on to line up political allies before negotiations start tuesday. the president met with the labor community today. he holds that first press conference since his re-election and will meet with congressional leaders at the end of the week, all of this because the one takeaway from the failed 2011 fiscal talks was the need to have an outside game. joining me now patti murray and a member of last year's super committee, the group that tried to reach a deal to avoid sequestrati sequestration. i apologize to come to you late wanting to get senator elect king's official announcement there that he's joining your

's how my friend from nevada repeatedly described it when republicans considered doing something similar several years ago but wisely chose not to. at the end of the following year my friend has -- was poised to become senate majority leader. this was back in 2006. with the experience of having served in the minority in his mind, the majority leader, the soon-to-be majority leader, the senator from nevada, made a commitment to practice the golden rule, as he put it, by running the senate with respect for the rules and for the minority rights the rules protect. unfortunately, he appears to have repudiated that clear commitment. unfortunately, he no longer recognizes, as senator byrd did, by the way, that the senate was not established to be efficient but to make sure minorities are protected. then my friend recognized that is what the senate is all about. that's what he said back then. now he says the primary consideration is -- quote -- "efficiency." he seeks to minimize concerns about this majoritarian power grab by characterizing the effect as tiny, a minor change, as changing the rule

close to call. nevada, colorado, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, new hampshire, and new hampshire and take a look in ohio. perhaps the most important state. mitt romney has 47 percent colorado's, mitt romney, 40 percent. just one percentage point lead over mitt romney the same in florida. in new hampshire, mccrory is 49%. and and the state of iowa, the state has a 6% relieved and that is mitt romney, 54 and the state of nevada, the president is where he is leading but it is certainly in the margin of error. certainly he is it within striking distance. grant lotus, kron 4. >> we will have extended live coverage on election night coming up next tuesday. it all starts at 8:00 you can also stay updated on our website kron 4 .com and facebook & ed twitter. >>jacqueline: and/or twitter -- >>jacqueline: we can see that cloud coverage to the north. we are just seeing the cloud coverage and temperatures in the '50s with the skies expected to clear leading to cooler conditions. fog is expected near the coast but as we are looking at it is possible going away from the coast it could be cooler. and wa

on tuesday. >> doug: and nevada close. >> sean: and same thing there with early voting. >> a little more complicated picture there but the republicans are in the hunt there. >> sean: prediction? i stand by what i said thursday not the "wall street journal." i think it will be close which is 51-48 which could be a two to two and a half point race and romney gets 279 to 281 or 286 in the electoral college. >> i think it is a two paint race or three paint race. karl rove good to see you. we will be watching all election night. is history repeating itself. the images of long lines. by the way, five hours on long island. rationing of gas in new jersey. the obama presidency is looking a lot like jimmy carter's. remember how the carter years ended? and what did the president mean when said that voters should vote out of revenge? we will check in with governor palin and much more, straight ahead. these fellas used capital one venture miles for a golf getaway. double miles you can actually use... but mr. single miles can't join his friends because he's getting hit with blackouts. shame on you. no

to iowa, colorado, nevada. a bold prediction. he may reach 300 electoral votes. that's bold prediction for final hours. they believe he will win it. >> election ed, thank you for being here on "the five." greg, to you first. the crowd situation. i was watching romney today. people waiting in line. last night, people were complaining they got frostbit frostbite. mitt romney gathering crowds with himself. when you are president obama you bring out jay-z and springstein. >> greg: saying i'm a lousy president but i'm cooler than the other guy. look at the brainless celebrities i'm talking to. the other guy talks policy. point out a maxim. never trust a man over 50 who still has an earring. people that he surrounds himself, they dress like aging pirates. you are an adult. thigh think they are outlaws. >> dana: it's like watching a male enhancement pill ad. if i looked at anyone else, i might get embarrassed. jay-z, the lyrics, talk about the war on recommend. i'm not going to be specificbe, i am letting people rhyme. britches and clothes. >> kimberly: when you see this -- this -- >> dana: w

snow in hamilton and maybe snow on diablo and certainlily low snow levels in sierra nevada. dropping down to 3000 feet. this is unusual to be this warm fast. forecast highs, you see 70s, 73 in fairfield and 73 in walnut creek. >>> in the past 20 minutes, polls closed in two swing states, florida and new hampshire. more election results are coming into the ktvu newsroom, we will have the latest. >> the polls have closed in ohio, probably the most closely watched, no republican has ever won the presidency without taking ohio. here are the current numbers with one percent of the precincts reporting. president obama up 58 to 42% over mitt romney. >> now in the midst of the evening commute and people heading to the polls after work. let's go to john sacka. you are watching the activity at a precinct, right? >> reporter: yes, the traffic here has definitely picked up in the last hour as people have gotten off of work and come down to vote. you can see everybody around here. we are at the salvation army in clayton. there are three different voting precincts in operation. people have been c

in nevada, 70s and 80s, colorado with 60s and sun shine here. maybe rain, eastern iowa, wintry mix, northern wisconsin, 40s and 50s. cold in new hampshire, but dry and sunny. virginia may be not too bad. back into florida, jacksonville and orlando could be looking at showers and storms. the rest of the state won't be an issue. today 25 to 35. chilly tomorrow around 50. nor'easter wednesday 5. potential wintry mix wednesday night. let's go to man cay at 5:17. timesaver traffic. >> thank you, howard. if you are planning to head over to the beltway, overall generally things are looking good. you see that red forming there, that is because of a deer struck right before you get to route 202 right after the split here along the left side of the roadway. already slowing things down. keep that in mind, although it is against the rush hour. let's take a live look over in oxen hill on the beltway, traffic moving well here, if you are heading to the wilson bridge, it looks pretty much like this as well. back over to our maps, 270 southbound, closer in, rockville, bethesda. over to the beltway and the a

to pump more money, more stimulus into the economy in hard-hit states like nevada, florida, ohio, colorado, pennsylvania, california than any institution. they may be more important than the fed. we have to look at money and politics. >> this is interesting. the comments from all four speakers. i want to ask about a demographic group that none of you touched on. one out of every five americans has a disability. 51% of likely voters said they have a family member with a disability. at the national press club when there was an opportunity for the romney campaign and the obama campaign to send someone to speak about disability issues, the romney campaign chose not to attend and chose not to issue a position paper on disabilities. i wanted to ask why, given that one out of five americans has a disability, 51% of american likely voters has a family member or a loved one, why is there not more conversation about that demographic within our society and election process? >> the short answer is in an election that revolving around the role of government, if your for small government, why would you

, ones we know, florida, new hampshire, iowa, virginia, nevada, colorado, new hampshire, i think ohio belongs in that group. i put it on myself i should have put it in there a few days before now. >> mark halperin, take a look at nbc news poll, iowa, president up but wisconsin and new hampshire, we're talking about a really closely fought race. >> based on the totality of the public and private polling the only us in is on governor romney to depp street get to 270 electoral votes. i think governor romney starts with a challenge which is florida, north carolina, and colorado. if he can win those three, and i think he's got a decent chance in all, although the president hasn't given up on colorado and florida, then he needs to find a couple other -- a couple of options, one is to just win ohio. if he can't win ohio, and virginia also, he needs to win virginia also, okay, if he can't win ohio he needs to find another way. states of the three polls you showed as well as pennsylvania, michigan, he needs to offset a loss in ohio. ohio's the simplest and most competitive the reason they're l

florida, virginia, colorado, and wisconsin next. but first first the battle for nevada. polls show president obama has anage there. while the romney camp still says the state is in play. dan springer live in las vegas tonight. dan? >> that's right, shep. but even a conservative columnist here says nevada is leaning obama and governor romney is down to his final strike early voting heavily favored the president. 48,000 more democrats voted over the two week period than republicans. that is a big hill to climb on tuesday. especially when you consider it's estimated 70% of all the voters have been cast. republicans know they need a big turn out in the rural parts of the state and a decisive win among independence. not impossible but about as likely, perhaps, as pulling an inside straight that is the latest from nevada. we'll have more coming up from other battleground states on "the fox report." , suspension and agility. the only trail capable side-by sides, featuring the ultimate value, r 570. the only 4-passenge sport machines, led by the all-new rzr xp 4 and the undisputed king of

. republicans will push back. we'll see what happens on election day tomorrow. most pros will tell you, nevada likely to go the president's way. if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. again, if you give them truth serum, which ones are they likely to lose, they put florida high on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia is a must win for governor romney. this is another state where the obama campaign says we are wired on the ground. we can do it. the key will be the northern vir suburbs. for the sake of argument, i know democrats are getting mad at me, i'm going to give it to governor romney. if we do that, he gets florida, virginia, this could shall a decisive state. for the sake of argument, the obama campaign says we have this state. watch what happens tomorrow, especially in evangelical areas. i'm going to this hypothetical to show you ho

obama. he is scheduled to appear in wisconsin, nevada, colorado today. mitt romney is scheduled to be in battleground virginia to talk , which will talk about in a moment. we will cover running at 2:00 p.m. on c-span and the president at 9:00 in colorado. watch here or listen on c-span radio. those are some of the latest headlines. [video clip] >> these are the stories your textbooks left out, great stories about real people in american history, very important moment in american history we don't know about. the first programs in america came to -- came 50 years before the mayflower sailed there there were french and they made wine and had the good sense to land in florida in june if instead of december in massachusetts. but then they were wiped out by the spanish. completely left out of the textbooks. a woman named hanna was taken captive by indians in 1695 and brought to new hampshire. still to come captors in the middle of the night, realized she could get a bounty for scalps of the indians, she went back and did that and made her way to boston, where she was a heroin and a st

towards obama. what are left? it is a bet to close. nevada, colorado, ohio, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, new hampshire, and florida. check out how close these numbers are in the swing states. ohio could be the most important state with 50%, mitt romney, 427%. and in virginia, commit amitt romne- and the same in florida and the same and you hampshire. new hampshire, wisconsin, ohio and iowa, and the president leads in these states but it is in with them at a margin of error. and definitely meant romney is within striking distance. >> as a reminder we will have election night extended coverage on tuesday at 8:00 p.m. in stay updated on our website www.kron4.com facebook and twitter. we have a developing story out of land and the rescue helicopter went down in flames we will be back ah. fire bad! just have to fire roast these tomatoes. do you churn your own butter what? too? this is going to give you a head start on your dinner. that seems easier sure does who are you? [ female announcer ] new progresso recipe starters. five delicious cooking sauces you combine with fresh ingredients

fine. same with nevada. areas of ohio look clear, too. there's talk of the nor'easter heading through the mid atlantic and off the east coast. it doesn't look to be a horrible storm. regardless fshl regardless, power outages in, we will see a chance of showers out there. but precip amounts should be very light. everything looks good, lynn, pretty much across the country for election day. couldn't ask for anything much better. >> bill, thanks so much. >>> in addition to the white house werks v, we'll take a look at the hotly contested senate races. plus let's go back to nbc's democracy plaza right here at the heart of rockefeller center. you can also check us out on the web at nbcnews.com. you're watching "early today." ♪ ♪ >>> a look there for you. bruce springsteen performing at an obama campaign event last night in columbus, ohio. speaking of the boss, it was in his home state of new jersey where officials are making sure voters can cast their ballots despite the devastation from hurricane sandy. voters whose polling places were flooded were busy filling out forms yesterday to c

like a good deal of sunshine. now in the battleground states on election day, nevada into colorado look at that nice sunshine there. 83 vegas, 16 in denver. western iowa looks fine. in dubuque looks wet and chilly. around 40 ohio. no excuses there for voting. same in new hampshire. it will be cold in 30s and 40s, wilmington and asheville and even charlotte may be looking at rain before the day is over. in western florida the weather looks good, jacksonville down to orlando. wet showers and thunderstorms on election day. 52 today, tonight 20s and 30s. tomorrow around 30 on election day. wednesday nor'easter, 45. there is potential, not saying it is set in stone, but want you to be aware that late wednesday night we may get wintry weather we'll have to deal with. look at this, we are going to warm up nicely. we should be back well into the 60s. the heart walk saturday morning, looking forward to that. monika, time save traffic? >>> traffic moving really well this morning. traffic is good on the beltway, we are going to zoom in on the northbound side from triangle all lanes are open. in fa

reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio. they thought they'd have the state locked up but they don't. six stops in ohio tells us while he has a lead, they are nervous about that. he will hit it six times. he is rolling out big celebrities. eva longoria in nevada. sheila e. she was banging on the drums. we're told on monday he will be in battleground states with jay-z and bruce springstein. you talked about david axelrod saying that are not going to lose michigan and not losing minnesota, not losing pennsylvania. if they do, he will shave off his mustache. new information on the shaving front. today, jay carney showed up to work on air force one without shaving says he is not going to shave between now and election day. superstition. he thinks it will help the president win re-election. we know jay carney will shave after election day. will david axelrod shave after election day? it may help us learn whether or not mr. romney will win or the president will win. >> dana: thank you. good thing when i was press secretary i didn't have such a rule

will be in wisconsin, where he is right now, with nevada, colorado, ohio, iowa, virginia, and florida. of course, they're sending their number one surrogates, the vp nominee, out where they're not going. is this the map, centered in ohio, virginia, and florida, is it still where the action is? >> it is for governor romney for sure. it's always been the case that governor romney needs to win florida, needs to win virginia, and pretty much needs to win ohio. even then he still needs to pick up another state somewhere along the way. you can see in his map that he's spending months of his time in florida, virginia, and ohio and a little bit of time in one of those other states that he thinks he might be able to get a pickup, whether that's wisconsin, whether that's colorado. those are the states he thinks he has the best chance. he's not spending time in iowa. he'll spend two different trips -- ending his campaign in new hampshire. he has an event in new hampshire over the weekend. he thinks he might be able to pick up there. that tells you a lot. i know a lot of republicans had hoped governor romney woul

, 48-46. colorado, they have romney up by 3. 50-47. but a cnn poll has 50-48, obama. nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you menti

to pick up pennsylvania. we have a good shot in virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada, that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. we're excited. we're hoping to see a lot of people out there in chicago on election night with barack obama experiencing a long, cold night, that john mccain won. >> it's nice he wishes physical discomfort on his enemies. but notice what exactly he was so confidently predicting there. the day before the election in 2008, it was mitt romney. these were his predictions for states that john mccain was definitely going to win. >> john mccain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> e see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the el

make of virginia? what do you make of wisconsin? what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is they are at 248. then you look at ohio which i think the early vote numbers are clear indication of of what is going to happen in ohio. that s another 18 electoral votes. and then colorado which is, you know, is in the rcp average just under water, 9/10 of a percent. but that is largely because of a couple of outliar polls that have huge numbers more democrats than republicans. i think we are going to win colorado and that gets you 275. and we are going to pick up out of ohio, new hampshire, nevada or minnesota, pennsylvania or wisconsin we are go

in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be the end of california as an economic dynamo, truly, the small businesses and the wealth producers of that state will move out if they put in place a 13% income tax. >> you know-- go ahead. >> california should look at what happened here in illinois. in 2011, little noi raised corporate taxes, raised income taxes, guess what? in the next two months, unemployment surged and businesses tried to flee the state. a real mess. >> paul: and choice seems to be if you're going to put any pressure on the politicians in sacramento to reform, a lot of businesses, jerry brown has been-- they've been chipping in, they think they're going down. and th

map look up? >> i object to the tossups. a bunch of the states aren't tossup. nevada, i put it in the democratic column. a tossup. there it is. >> these were the rules. >> exactly. but you made the rules. owe didn't deliver your own map. >> 285 for romney 253 for obama. romney carries mccain state and florida. i thinkness and wisconsin, potential pennsylvania are knife's edge states. inness, up for nevada. >> i think significantly and we have, there are true tossups we can argue. we agree on 46 states. roughly. there are only four states we disagree about. >> again, if you believe the turn-out miles that most poll show, obama would win by 300. five states. >> yeah. >> colorado, iowa, virginia, ohio, new hampshire. otherwise we agree. when we're forced to -- >> wrap up with this. we do this ipad app. >> so we want to pick some closest. the closeest to karl is mark alcott who had the same map. if you put it up, we will send mark something. what are we sending anymore >> out graphed copy of my book. >> okay. there you go. >> i'm sending one to him, too. closest to joe's map is

endorsements from all 4 major newspapers there. nevada both close at 10:00. the president has a small but steady lead there. as the numbers are coming in maybe you can help determine who is going to win. >>> how will they resinate with viewers? >> the two closing arguments i would rather be making the type of one that romney is making than the one that president obama is making. the president is burdened by a record he has basically not done what he said he would do. that is a huge problem for him. so necessarily there is a larger component to dump it on the other guy in his closing argument than it is in romney. romney talking about hope and change. that's what obama said four years ago. that's a more uplifting final argument to make. romney looks happier and comfortable with himself making it. the president seems a little weary a little horse and glad to have this over with. i think that's what romney is doing and saying may be a little more attractive. >> if the president does lose reelection what would be the reason? bill o'reilly has his take on that a little bit lart. >> it is t

could win in colorado. but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume, powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact tour tomorrow. we'll be right back. >> bill: what will happen in the presidential v

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